May 8, 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMBIES

by Barry Bozeman

SLAYING THE CLIMATE CHANGE ZOMBIES


 

The ZOMBIE ARGUMENTS are those that have been debunked and refuted constantly and consistently yet refuse to die and be buried - thus they become ZOMBIES shuffling through the Internet and comment sections in news media along with wet-brained talking heads paid by the Coal Oil and Gas industries to foul the air and fog the minds of readers and viewers with specious "arguments" designed to convey the impression that debate exists among qualified experts - but there is no debate 




In the next edition of this weblog ENVIRONMENT 2014 I cover the issue of the Climate Models and the obvious conclusion is that the models are rapidly becoming more detailed 
and "SKILLFUL". They continue to improve with time and become increasingly closer to the observations they predict . 

The ZOMBIE ARGUMENT says "Climate Change is Natural" - well YES it is natural. And it runs in cycles as we can see from the historical record. Global Temperature, CO2 Concentration and Sea Level all rise and fall over eons of time and we know they determine this from the record revealed in ice cores, tree rings and ocean sediments. 



Denier ZOMBIES say "It's the SUN" and of course there is an 11 year cycle of ebb and flow as the energy from the sun increases and decreases along with the planetary tilt and wobble - as we can observe from the chart below.  But we have been in the low energy cycle of the SUN from 2005 thru 2010 yet the temperature on EARTH is not falling as should be expected in this part of the cycle.  The "1998 was hotter" argument is exposed below when we realize that 1998 was supposed to be the hottest given the natural cycle of the SUN.  


POLLING suggests the following rather absurd results showing how effectively the oil, coal and gas industries have spent their millions to fool large segments of the population into doubting the 97% of climate scientists who agree that the Earth is warming and that the cause of that warming is man made - primarily as the result of carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

The fossil fuel  industries are like a modern day Catholic Church burning heretics at the stake for saying that the Earth is not the center of the universe around which everything revolves.  They pillory Climate Scientists like heretics who somehow are part of a conspiracy to keep you from enjoying your SUV at 12 MPG.  






If 97% of the Heart Surgeons in the country told you your body requires a bypass operation I doubt you would hesitate to accept their verdict. But 97% of all Climate Scientists tell us that the Earth is warming and the cause is man made addition of Carbon emissions in the atmosphere, and 42% of the population disagrees with their conclusions. 





Another absurd ZOMBIE argument involves financial motives "You Climate Scientists just want grant money".  How odd - these Climate Scientist are spending 8 years and 100's of thousands of dollars along with extremely long hours of research and writing just to earn Doctorates in their fields of study. Their salaries are based on professorships or research grants that do not approach the income from similarly educated medical doctors - and make no mistake - the Oil, Coal and Gas industries would pay almost any of them far more if they would only change their results. EXXON, BP and Shell can afford it. Those companies along with many more in the Fossil Fuel industry make billions. The question of motive is most revealing when it comes to the deniers. 



Below is the chart that should easily put every denial ZOMBIE to permanent death.  Beginning with the Industrial Revolution around 100 years ago a 5400 year downward trend in cooling started to reverse and all of the warming loss of those 5.5 Millennia was reversed in a mere 100 years. 




ONLY A BLIND PERSON could fail to see that 382 ppm spike at the end of graph 2 and how it matches the sharp rise in temperatures shown on the previous graph that reversed a 5400 year cooling trend. 

The above graphic charts carbon dioxide levels for the past 647,000 years. The most recent analysis of air trapped in Antarctic ice allows us to look back at least 800,000 years. During that time, we have gone through numerous ice ages and interglacial periods. Temperatures have been both hotter and colder than today. Yet, at no time have the carbon dioxide levels exceeded 300 ppm; that is until recently. Carbon dioxide levels in 2006 were 382 ppm. In 2009 they were ~389 ppm. The question is, why are we at these unprecedented levels? We can easily see the fluctuations in natural carbon emissions over eons but the levels have recently entered uncharted territory. How anyone can conclude that we can remove massive amounts of carbon fuels from beneath the surface of the planet and pour it into the atmosphere without consequences is beyond my understanding.
  
Is there any need to further question the FACT that man made carbon emissions at unprecedented levels exists?

Is there any need to further question the FACT that the Earth is warming up? 

So who wants to continue to argue that climate change is not man made? 

NOW LET"S MOVE ON TO WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL





The SKILLFUL models shown in the ENVIRONMENT 2014 BLOG  now demonstrate that the Model and the resulting OBSERVATIONS are becoming very close to accurate.



By 2053 Warming will likely result in the "BUSINESS AS USUAL" 4 degrees centigrade rise over much of the planet.  Some steps to mitigate that disaster could be taken - how aggressive they are will determine the result according to these skillful models.


By 2092 the choices made would result in drastically different outcomes.  So how many degrees of temperature rise will turn the planet into a place with a 5 meter sea level rise?  And where will all those billions of people now living by the sea go?  And what will they eat when drought and flood wipe out 50% of the available food supply? We do not know how many degrees will result in what particular sea level change. But we do know that warmer results in more drought of increased length in some places and that warmer appears to increase the intensity and number of serious storms. 

All the scientific community can do is measure, model and predict and they are pretty careful doing it. The scientists aren't sensationalizing the data but the data is pretty sensational. Go to the posts showing the warming data and the Carbon Dioxide data posted on Mother's Day May 11th. 2014. There is no question about the warming and the increased carbon dioxide. What it means is more difficult to predict. But the consequences could be dire and we should act accordingly. it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know about air quality, acid rain, drought, flood, severe weather or what they mean to the economy and well being of mankind. 







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