QUESTIONS:
ARE YOU CONVINCED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL AND THAT OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM IS POWERLESS TO DO ANYTHING THAT WILL MITIGATE THE HARM IN TIME TO BE EFFECTIVE?
Do you believe as I do that climate change will dramatically change the world for our children and grand children?
Are you convinced that our political system is powerless and ineffectual in addressing this problem due to the control over Congress exercised by the fossil fuel industry and Republican dismissal of climate change as a hoax?
Have you considered what you might do to prepare something for your children and grand children that might help them survive and thrive in case of catastrophic systemic failure?
Have you started to think that the "preppers" and "survivalists" might not be absurd or extreme?
Would you be willing to join in a discussion of the situation and become part of a group planning a way to protect our children and grand children in case the worst happens?
Many are coming to believe that the disastrous effects of Climate Change are inevitable even though it is beginning to appear that a majority of US citizens want us to try to slow or stop it. I think it is only prudent to begin to prepare something for our grand children and children in cast the worst happens more rapidly and precipitously than expected.
At the bottom of this entry you will find a very rough outline of thoughts about what a group of like-minded people might do to prepare for an uncertain future. If you are already informed and convinced about the severity of the climate change problem you might want to skip the following information about the recent science and politics. I have gone into significant detail concerning the latest research. Near the end of this long post you will find a broad outline intended as a starting point for discussion concerning a way a group of us might prepare for the worst. If that idea appeals to you please contact me
For two years now I have closely followed the Climate Change science and the political situation concerning that science and it's relationship to economics. I have the time and inclination to study the research and science so my opinions and suggestions are not shaped or predicated on what passes for “news” in theUSA today. I go to the front lines of scientific research and reports particularly from the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctica paying particular attention to the most recognized experts who draw their theories, assumptions and conclusions from the models and studies of the NSF (National Science Foundation) and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). And I have been following James Hansen, Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann along with many other key researchers in the field.
CONTINUED BELOW
Having known Al Gore and serving as his father's Senate Page back in 1961, I was predisposed to trust his good judgment unlike the majority of voting Tennesseans. Al has always been extremely well read and insatiably well informed unlike most of his peers in the US Senate or the man who managed to rob him of his duly elected place as President. Had Al taken the office to which he was duly elected we might not be facing this rapidly approaching disaster quite this soon and his early warning "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" served to introduce the problem we now face.
The current President - another very intelligent well read man - is trying desperately to warn us of the consequences of inaction but he is beset by men of low morals and profit motivated self-interest who will do everything they can to thwart his efforts to minimize the impact of climate change. And we are on the brink of another election cycle where the Republican candidates are of one mind when it comes to action on greenhouse gas emissions but even if we elect a person who wants to do what we can to blunt the impact of climate change the chance this will actually result in sufficient action is slim indeed. The examples of Gore and Obama and their efforts on Climate Change is clear proof that our political system of a Congress owned by the fossil fuel industry is clearly incapable of addressing the problem.
ARE YOU CONVINCED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL AND THAT OUR POLITICAL SYSTEM IS POWERLESS TO DO ANYTHING THAT WILL MITIGATE THE HARM IN TIME TO BE EFFECTIVE?
Do you believe as I do that climate change will dramatically change the world for our children and grand children?
Are you convinced that our political system is powerless and ineffectual in addressing this problem due to the control over Congress exercised by the fossil fuel industry and Republican dismissal of climate change as a hoax?
Have you considered what you might do to prepare something for your children and grand children that might help them survive and thrive in case of catastrophic systemic failure?
Have you started to think that the "preppers" and "survivalists" might not be absurd or extreme?
Would you be willing to join in a discussion of the situation and become part of a group planning a way to protect our children and grand children in case the worst happens?
Many are coming to believe that the disastrous effects of Climate Change are inevitable even though it is beginning to appear that a majority of US citizens want us to try to slow or stop it. I think it is only prudent to begin to prepare something for our grand children and children in cast the worst happens more rapidly and precipitously than expected.
At the bottom of this entry you will find a very rough outline of thoughts about what a group of like-minded people might do to prepare for an uncertain future. If you are already informed and convinced about the severity of the climate change problem you might want to skip the following information about the recent science and politics. I have gone into significant detail concerning the latest research. Near the end of this long post you will find a broad outline intended as a starting point for discussion concerning a way a group of us might prepare for the worst. If that idea appeals to you please contact me
For two years now I have closely followed the Climate Change science and the political situation concerning that science and it's relationship to economics. I have the time and inclination to study the research and science so my opinions and suggestions are not shaped or predicated on what passes for “news” in the
CONTINUED BELOW
Having known Al Gore and serving as his father's Senate Page back in 1961, I was predisposed to trust his good judgment unlike the majority of voting Tennesseans. Al has always been extremely well read and insatiably well informed unlike most of his peers in the US Senate or the man who managed to rob him of his duly elected place as President. Had Al taken the office to which he was duly elected we might not be facing this rapidly approaching disaster quite this soon and his early warning "AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH" served to introduce the problem we now face.
The current President - another very intelligent well read man - is trying desperately to warn us of the consequences of inaction but he is beset by men of low morals and profit motivated self-interest who will do everything they can to thwart his efforts to minimize the impact of climate change. And we are on the brink of another election cycle where the Republican candidates are of one mind when it comes to action on greenhouse gas emissions but even if we elect a person who wants to do what we can to blunt the impact of climate change the chance this will actually result in sufficient action is slim indeed. The examples of Gore and Obama and their efforts on Climate Change is clear proof that our political system of a Congress owned by the fossil fuel industry is clearly incapable of addressing the problem.
Unlike most of you with jobs, careers, families and social lives; I have the time and inclination to follow the details of climate change and I have watched every documentary and video I could find on the subject while debating numerous deniers online. If you Google “Best recent climate change documentaries” you will find my picture and listing on the first page of results. Does that make me an expert? NO, but it does show my intense effort to be informed along with the 175,000 plus visits my website has achieved. I am very well informed on this subject and it scares the crap out of me.
Although there is no way to achieve absolute certainty, I side with the 98% of established recognized peer reviewed scientific papers and organizations that theorize man made climate change is real and a clear and present danger to the fabric of civilization as we know it.
THIS IS THE 2014 IPCC report for policymakers and it isclear and unequivocal Read it with care.
I hope all of you are aware of the political postures of our “leaders” – On the one side President Obama making concerted attempts to construct a plan to try to curb the CO2 emissions that increase greenhouse gasses and exacerbate climate change and in opposition almost every Republican from those who work for big oil claiming Climate Change to be a “hoax” to slightly more moderate stances but none who are willing or interested in doing anything to address the problem (even if they concede it exists)
It’s been over 6 years since I spent 3 months in Colorado and North Carolina doing everything I could to help Barack Obama win the Presidency. In some significant ways his failure to achieve what I hoped he could has led to my recent state of deep depression. Only recently have I begun to emerge from that state of depression with a desire to do something again to help any group of concerned people survive a future I now contend will be significantly changed from almost everything we have known in our lifetimes.
It’s difficult to imagine that intelligent people cannot come to grips with the idea that you cannot dig up and pump out the accumulated fossil fuels built up in millions of years and spew it out as smoke and gas into our closed atmosphere without significant consequences. But Capitalism has rarely accounted for cost and profit taking into account the long term environmental effects of resource depletion and/or pollution.
We have detailed studies of the environmental and waste byproduct impact of extracting oil from the Canadian tar sands and fracking for natural gas but big business has made it impossible for an elected Congress to establish a fair and equitable cost that accounts for waste and pollution. “Drill Baby Drill” and bring the cost of oil down to insure that business investment in fossil fuel is secure and hire the same people who kept trying to prove that tobacco is harmless to confuse the public about the real costs of oil addiction. That is the aim and operational modality of an unconscionable group of politicians and corporate business leader.
THERE IS NO QUESTION ABOUT IT NOW – CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL and it is now unstoppable. These things are certain if drastic steps are not taken to mitigate the problem. The situation is dire verging on catastrophic and there is no consensus worldwide much less in the US since the Climate Summits have yielded little in the way of results.
1) Greenland and massive parts of the West Antarctic Ice sheets will melt and go into the sea causing sea level rise of 12 to 30 meters. How fast? and how soon? are the only debatable questions of the new reality.
2) A 2 meter sea level rise will displace 187 Million homes in areas at or near sea level and the shifts in rain and weather patterns will create drought and flood conditions that will significantly disrupt food production.
3) This displaced population will create a strain on national resources even in a country as rich as ours and large masses of displaced homeless hungry people will move inland seeking food and shelter in unprecedented numbers.
4) The most recent data from OMG and GRACE over Greenland show that the fjords cutting deep into Greenland are far longer and deeper than ever imagined so warmer ocean water can now under cut and melt much more ice than predicted.
Back in 2007 Scientists were reticent to includeGreenland and the Antarctic in their models showing 2050 and 2100 as the time frame where sea level rise would become a major problem. Now they are playing catch up with new technology to get more data in order to accurately model the problem. This story about a 3 meter sea level rise prediction in a faster time frame is just making the rounds in the media:
Back in 2007 Scientists were reticent to include
If you have become interested in the information provided in this email here is the link to my 2014 website and my list of “BEST RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE DOCUMENTARIES” including the Bill Maher produced HBO Series VICE that takes us on NSF operated flights over the Antarctic glaciers being studied by NASA and NOAA. This VICE episode is the one thing I think you should watch so you can see the depth and detail of the research that supports my argument that we are in deep trouble. If you don’t do anything else watch this ASAP Sorry but it appears you can only watch a few segments of this online for free without an HBO subscription. If you have HBOGO you can watch the entire episode HERE -
This program is the best thus far at showing first hand how Republican talking points are created and proliferated through the media. Mr Bast of the HEARTLAND INSTITUTE who’s claim to fame was holding back legislation that put warning labels on cigarettes by claiming the science linking smoking to cancer was flawed – has taken that “expertise” to the climate “debate”.
The American people in the majority want something to be done about climate change. We have reduced our fuel consumption and switched out our light bulbs. We know that we could build massive solar arrays in sun drenched desert locations of power most of our cities. We watch as Germany has led the way in converting a huge percentage of their energy requirement to solar sources. If this small northern country can do it we should find it quite easy. We have the technology and we could create millions of jobs while we convert the country to renewable clean energy. But the big money behind big oil and coal are, will be and have been doing everything they can to keep us dependent on their dirty fossil fuels. They own Congress and the media.
The disconnect between the scientific data and the public awareness of the unprecedented ice melt in the west Antarctic is a case in point. Prominent Republicans spew doubt citing the strong increase in sea ice coverage as evidence of cooling when it’s clear that thin ice atop the ocean has no bearing on sea level rise caused by land based ice going into the ocean. Ice on or in the ocean has no bearing on sea level and the thin expanse of ice on the ocean is the result of a change in wind circulation caused by the warming in the ocean to the west. This is obvious to even the least educated but Republican politicians seem to have no problem with being obtuse and misleading their followers as long as it suits their benefactors with big oil and business.
But a thorough study of the combined data can be coupled with the current milestone levels of CO2 in our atmosphere, rise in global temperature, and sea level rise to paint a picture that requires your undivided attention.
THE VITAL SIGNS OF THE PLANET
Not long ago - 10 years or so - we were told that 400 to 450 ppm CO2 was the "target for stabilization" - that milestone has been reached and instead of leveling or decreasing CO2 emissions we have been increasing them dramatically.
Perhaps it’s fitting that a nation willing to be misled suffers the consequences of this willful ignorance – but by in large these people will not suffer the consequences. It is our children and grand-children who will bear the brunt of the problems created by this insanity.
We people with families have a situation to consider. What if anything should we do now to prepare for what I predict is inevitable and what no one can rule out as impossible or improbable. I would love to be wrong about this – and I can hope like many do that some solution short of collapse will be forthcoming. But we live in a country where the preponderance of the Republican party supports Donald Trump for President followed by men like W’s brother and Mr Huckabee. You can bet that none of these people will do anything to stem the rise of greenhouse gasses. Florida ’s governor would see his state submerged before he would go against the oil interests and submerged it will become.
We may have 20 years or perhaps even 30 before those neck deep in water in Miami are willing to admit they are drowning. But it is quite possible that 10 years will show us changes that are difficult to imagine. Katrina and Sandy didn’t wake us up. Why should beachfront in Orlando make a difference?
California and Washington State are burning while unprecedented drought in Central CA and Texas cut into agriculture and beef production. Even if a climate change realist is elected President this time around, he or she will be faced with an intractable Congress owned by the fossil fuel industry.
The long and short of all that is that there will be no political solution to this problem. The temperature will rise and the ice will melt – so the only real question is what will that do to ocean currents and the world as we know it? Some see a runaway freight train of rising temperatures that life on Earth will not survive. A second Noah’s flood of Biblical proportions resulting in Waterworld for real.
We know the oceans are in trouble from over fishing and increasing acidification. It seems likely that the greatest CO2 sink on the planet (the ocean) is reaching a saturation point and that saturation coupled with the warming is causing significant decrease in phytoplankton and krill – the base food that supports life in the seas. The Adelie penguin population in the west Antarctic is down 85% in the past 5 years and other penguin colonies in the area seem poised to follow suit. These birds and the krill are the canaries in the Antarctic coal mine.
In fact the polar regions are the bell weather indicators of what is coming and the news is ALL BAD. You should become conversant with the term “tipping point” and understand that once these cycles take hold the collapse could be sudden and overwhelming. The ice melts in the polar areas and the lack that reflective cover that bounces a lot of solar energy back into space means the darker oceans absorb the heat and this increases the melting of ice. As the ice melts and the temperatures inside the polar regions increase the permafrost begins to thaw. The permafrost is made up of peat and other organic material high in methane. As it thaws the methane is released and methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 – this increases the greenhouse effect and thus increases the warming in a vicious feedback loop that accelerates the process.
The points where these effects become unstoppable - less reflection – more heat absorbed – thawing of permafrost – methane release – more warming – these are “tipping points’ launching the climate into unknown and unpredictable territory.
The points where these effects become unstoppable - less reflection – more heat absorbed – thawing of permafrost – methane release – more warming – these are “tipping points’ launching the climate into unknown and unpredictable territory.
NASA has launched OMG to study Oceans Melting Greenland and already scientist are surprised and dismayed to find things to be far worse than predicted. There is enough ice on Greenland to raise the ocean by over 6 meters and the rate of the melt is accelerating as the permafrost in the north is now thawing. Turns out the rather dire predictions from 2007 were nowhere near dire enough. Warmer ocean water is headed under the ice in fjords that are much deeper than anyone knew and the glaciers that feed those fjords are now much more vulnerable than thought. The loss of 20% of Greenland’s Ice and the current melt of west Antarctic glaciers combine for a 2 meter sea level rise in a much shorter than previous anticipated time frames. 2030 instead of 2050. The best place for scientific data on Greenland comes from the NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center)
NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adm) is the best place for pure data on the annual Greenhouse Gas Index.
There remains a serious range of probabilities regarding sea level rise and the models in Antarctica for instance. Many now predict a 2 meter rise probability – enough to flood 187 million homes worldwide. But measuring sea level is tricky business. We do not live on a static planet and the oceans are not like a bathtub. The oceans shift and flow as winds pile up massive amounts of sea water.
A current item for increased concern are the conditions now present for an El Nino event on the order of the 1997 - 1998 El Nino thatcaused billions of dollars in damage across the west coast In normal years the winds push water along the equator from California toward Asia piling up huge amounts of sea water away from our west coast. El Nino occurs when the wind from the west dies so the warmer water remains off the CA coast resulting in extreme rainfall on California – something that is much needed at present.
Despite a clear realization of the relationship between greenhouse gasses *CO2 and the increase in temperature leading to the problems considered above, we are currently INCREASING our output of CO2 quite dramatically. Emerging economic growth in India and China are boosting the number of combustion engines by millions each year along with coal fired power plants. The increased awareness of conscious humans concerning the damage possible from this warming trend has accelerated the use of less power for light bulbs and the purchase of more fuel efficient cars. So as individuals who vote with their wallets the people are willing to do what they can. But our leaders who control policy concerning power generation, mass transportation, alternative energy applications on the large scale, incentives, and the exportation of dirty coal to China are clearly not in step with average American consumers. They are moved by big contributions from big oil – not the will or desire of individual constituents.
So we are seeing unprecedented ice loss in the west Antarctic and Greenland that followed unprecedented glacier loss in high elevations. We are seeing the death of coral reefs caused by acidity and bleaching and the decline of basic ocean food stuffs and fisheries. We are seeing unprecedented storm surges and droughts, fires and winds. But our political system is deadlocked by men who are owned by the interests of business as usual never mind the signs. There is NO LIKELIHOOD of a political solution to our situation
When taken together the most recent information is overwhelming and dramatic. It's difficult to know if any of the leading scientists responsible for the various individual parts of this information are also aware of all of the other parts. There appears to be a tendency for myopia due to the complete immersion they have in their individual research. But when you take all of these together with a studied background in what has been made available over time the complete picture that begins to emerge is quite simply frightening.
Although the scientific community is almost united behind the fact of man made climate change, they are not politicians and they are reticent to speak out in terms of certainty about dire predictions and consequences. Even with the most current research and data pointing toward a much more volatile and rapid acceleration of melting ice and sea level rise we do not hear strident alarm and calls for immediate drastic action because scientists are not inclined toward alarmist reactions even when faced with dramatic data. They are slow to draw conclusions based on incomplete data. When taken together the most recent information is overwhelming and dramatic. It's difficult to know if any of the leading scientists responsible for the various individual parts of this information are also aware of all of the other parts. There appears to be a tendency for myopia due to the complete immersion they have in their individual research. But when you take all of these together with a studied background in what has been made available over time the complete picture that begins to emerge is quite simply frightening.
IMPORTANT SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL CATASTROPHIC WARMING all AUGUST 2015 Recent Data
THE POINT OF NO RETURN - ROLLING STONE AUG 2015
JAMES HANSEN'S BOMBSHELL ANNOUNCEMENT ON SEA LEVEL - SLATE 2015
SCIENTIFIC PAPER FROM ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS ON ICE MELT
JAMES HANSEN'S BOMBSHELL ANNOUNCEMENT ON SEA LEVEL - SLATE 2015
SCIENTIFIC PAPER FROM ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS ON ICE MELT
Check out the 3-D map of the Greenland Ice Sheet – it is spectacular
Most informed people think the sea level rise will be very gradual giving coastal areas some time to construct Netherland style dikes to mitigate the effects of storm surges and this will be accompanied by significant migration away from coastal areas in a steady but manageable exodus. Thus property values in higher elevations will increase steadily while coastal properties will decrease in value. Although it will be very costly to construct barriers to the rising seas and that construction will likely provide only a temporary decade or so of relief, it seems politicians do have the will to expend our tax dollars for these types of temporary solutions like rebuilding New Orleans after Katrina or the efforts underway to rebuild parts of Long Island and Jersey shore areas post Sandy.
Like throwing 800 Billion at Wall Street to avert financial crisis these costly plans to keep the coasts above water will drain national financial resources but they will not solve the problem because a 2 or 3 meter protection barrier won’t hold back 4 to 6 meter sea level increases. Greenland alone has over 6 meters of sea level rise trapped in ice but Antarctica holds 90% of the worlds fresh water in ice and the collapsing west Antarctic glacier mass holds more ice than Greenland ..
So there remains this tipping point problem that starts with melting ice added to the fact that warming seas expend and become less capable of absorbing more warmth and carbon from emissions. Add to that the problem of thawing permafrost and the release of millions of tons of methane (a far more powerful greenhouse gas) and the potential for a catastrophic rapid collapse becomes very real.
One way this could manifest would be a compressed warming spike and flash melt that would expand sea level by 3 meters over a single summer spawning a series of hurricanes and cyclones that send flood waters deep into Boston, NY, Newport, Portland, Atlantic City, and even Washington DC not to mention the most populated areas of Florida and cities like Houston, TX. This would be like 30 Katrina events over 3 months.
We all saw how unprepared FEMA was for Katrina and there is no way it could begin to handle Katrina to the 30th power. And the rest of the world will suffer even more than the US . Holland will be gone along with Belgium and the Baltics and Denmark in northern Europe, China’s major cities like Bejing and Shanghai will displace 50 million and Mumbai and Calcutta in India will be worse. Great Britain will suffer the loss of London and Tokyo will be significantly submerged along with Bangkok , Ho Chi Minh City and much of Indonesia and the Philippines . This kind of worldwide loss of life, food production and shelter will collapse world order at the same time our military capabilities will be severely retarded. The chaos would be epic and self reliance will be key to survival for every American
All of the above becomes possible – even probable – at a 3 degree rise in temperature and this is not outside the parameters of predictability. Some of our most prominent climate scientists speak with moderation while privately holding the view that this kind of catastrophe is inevitable. They only disagree with the “WHEN” variable and pray that we have 30 or 40 years to get some control. This is beyond any “HOLY SHIT” revelation. If you carefully read and combine the accumulated data it is quite easy to provide evidence that this is coming and coming sooner than anyone could have expected 4 or 5 years ago. We are not slowing down on CO2 emissions – far from it those emissions are increasing. China and India are adding over a million combustion engines a year to their highways and China is putting a new coal fired power plant online every month.
But a thorough study of the combined data can be coupled with the current milestone levels of CO2 in our atmosphere, rise in global temperature, and sea level rise to paint a picture that requires your undivided attention.
THE VITAL SIGNS OF THE PLANET
Not long ago - 10 years or so - we were told that 400 to 450 ppm CO2 was the "target for stabilization" - that milestone has been reached and instead of leveling or decreasing CO2 emissions we have been increasing them dramatically.
Current [atmospheric] CO2 values are more than 100 ppm higher than at any time in the last one million years (and maybe higher than any time in the last 25 million years). This new record represents an increase of 85 ppm in the 55 years since David Keeling began making measurements at Mauna Loa. Even more disturbing than the magnitude of this change is the fact that the rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere has been steadily increasing over the last few decades, meaning that future increases will happen faster. When averaged over 55 years, the increase has been about 1.55 ppm CO2 per year. However, the most recent data suggest that the annual increase is more than 2.75 ppm CO2 per year.
These increases in atmospheric CO2 are causing real, significant changes in the Earth system now, not in some distant future climate, and will continue to be felt for centuries to come. We can study these impacts to better understand the way the Earth will respond to future changes, but unless serious actions are taken immediately, we risk the next threshold being a point of no return in mankind's unintended global-scale geoengineering experiment.
– Dr. Charles Miller
Researcher specializing in the remote sensing of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases; Principal investigator, Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) mission
We know seas are rising and we know why. The urgent questions are by how much and how quickly. Available to download, this infographic covers the science behind sea level rise, who's affected, how much melting ice is contributing, and what NASA is doing to help.
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